Minus Parker, Spurs ready for clash with Cavs

Basketball Betting Lines

03/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - News out of San Antonio wasn't good this weekend with the recent hand injury to Tony Parker. The Spurs hope they can get by without one of their leaders starting with tonight's showdown against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena.

Parker left Saturday night's 102-92 victory against the Memphis Grizzlies with a broken bone in his right hand and could miss at least six weeks. Parker, the team's second-leading scorer at 16.6 points per game, had eight points before leaving near the end of the first half.

"We're just beginning to look like we expected to look about a month and a half ago," Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said. "The Parker thing is really deflating at this point."

Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan each added 17 points for the Spurs, who have won four in a row and opened a quick road trip on a winning note. Matt Bonner chipped in 13 points and five boards off the bench, while George Hill ended with 11 points for the victors.

San Antonio is 14-14 away from the Alamo City and sits seventh in the Western Conference standings.

The Cavs gave James, the NBA's leading scorer, a rest in Saturday's 92-85 loss at Milwaukee which ended their six-game winning streak. James is probable against the Spurs with a sore right ankle and is averaging 30.0 points per game this season.

Antawn Jamison picked up the slack and led all scorers with 30 points, while Delonte West was only other Cleveland player in double figures with 27 in defeat.

"I think defensively we did pretty well," Jamison said. "We definitely missed some (opportunities) on the offensive end. The way (James) is able to create easy opportunities for his teammates, it took us awhile to get things going in the right direction."

Cleveland will try to extend its home winning streak to four games this evening and has won 25 of its last 27 home games, averaging 105.7 points on .515 shooting over that stretch. The top-seeded and Central Division-leading Cavs own a strong 27-4 mark at home this season.

The Spurs and Cavs will play the first of two 2009-10 meetings tonight, with Cleveland slated to visit San Antonio on March 26. The Cavaliers won both matchups with San Antonio a season ago, as well as seven of the last 11 meetings at the 'Q' in this series.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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