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09/09/2010 -
LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) -Kentucky linebacker Danny Trevathan saw running back Derrick Locke dart through the hole during one practice this summer and waited for the shifty 5-foot-9 speedster to sprint for the sidelines.
Wrong.
Heading out of harm's way is so last year.
Instead of darting for safety, Locke dipped his shoulder and tried to split the ``22'' in Trevathan's jersey. The move surprised Trevathan, who has four inches and 25 pounds on his teammate. Locke's legs kept churning until well after the whistle blew.
``We have some battles out there,'' Trevathan said.
And these days, Locke wins more than he probably should.
While developing a reputation as a home-run threat during three sometimes spectacular, but often injury plagued years, the senior is trying to become the kind of polished all-around back the Wildcats have lacked since Rafael Little left following the 2007 season.
Locke showed flashes of both during Kentucky's season-opening 23-16 win over Louisville, piling up 104 yards and two touchdowns as the Wildcats rolled over their rivals.
He scored on a dazzling 32-yard run on his first carry of the season, spinning past a Cardinal defender so effortlessly it looked like a video game. Late in the fourth quarter with Kentucky holding a tenuous seven-point lead, he picked up five tough yards for the decisive first down that let the Wildcats run out the clock.
He handled the ball 27 times in all, including three receptions and a kickoff return, a sure sign the cracked bone in his left forearm sustained during a mo-ped accident in the offseason is long gone.
``I feel like I can handle a few runs back-to-back-to-back,'' he said. ``I want to be out there first and make big plays but I'm not going to try to be Superman.''
Maybe not, but Locke won't be the only little back trying to make big plays on Saturday when the Wildcats (1-0) host Western Kentucky (0-1).
Hilltoppers running back Bobby Rainey is coming off a career-high 155 yards and a touchdown on 30 wearying carries in a 49-10 loss to then-No. 8 Nebraska.
Coach Willie Taggart just laughed when asked if he was trying to punish the 5-foot-8, 190-pound Rainey by sending him so frequently into the teeth of a defense that's regularly among the nation's best.
``That's a bunch of baloney,'' Taggart said. ``He gets it done. That wasn't the plan to be honest with you, but if that's what it takes to win a ballgame, we'll do it.''
And Rainey will gladly accept the challenge.
``I felt like I was back in high school,'' Rainey said. ``I just have to keep pushing.''
To keep the undersized WKU defense off the field, Rainey might not have a choice. Taggart didn't intend to give Rainey the ball so often. Once he saw how effective Rainey was at extending drives, Taggart simply kept at it.
It left his star pretty sore on Sunday. By Monday Rainey was already asking for the ball again. It's the kind of competitiveness Taggart loves, the same kind he saw in former Stanford star Toby Gerhart, who Taggart mentored while serving as running backs coach for the Cardinal before returning to his alma mater.
``Bobby's really patient, he allows his blocks to happen before he makes his cuts and runs fast through the hole,'' Taggart said. ``That is kind of where he's similar to Toby. And he's stronger than you think. The first guy usually doesn't tackle him.''
That's not exactly good news for the Wildcats, who gave up 190 yards rushing to Louisville last week, including an 80-yard touchdown run by Bilal Powell.
``We just got to wrap him up,'' said Kentucky coach Joker Phillips. ``We can't let him get started because he's got that type of speed.''
That goes double for the Hilltoppers. WKU surrendered 289 yards on the ground against the Cornhuskers, and Locke has the speed to match anyone in Nebraska's talented backfield.
``That guy can run,'' Taggart said with a whistle.
Especially now that he's healthy. Locke's sophomore season was cut short by a knee injury, and though he led Kentucky with 907 yards rushing last year, he admits the fear of getting hurt again was always out there.
When he'd get hit, he'd immediately think ``please tackle me.''
``I did that a lot last year,'' Locke said. ``That can't happen this year.''
It's why he tried to show Trevathan what he was made of during camp. He did it again against the Cardinals, grinding out the tough yards when the easy ones weren't there.
``He'd step on people's feet, he was trying to get more yards than what usually does,'' said fullback Moncell Allen. ``He's a small guy but he's got a big heart like he's one of the big backs.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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The
2010 World Basketball Championship update - September 9th >>
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QUARTERFINALS
Russia vs. USA, 11 a.m.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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